IMD’s Advanced Monsoon Forecasting Strategy
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has adopted a hybrid forecasting approach for monthly and seasonal southwest monsoon forecasts. It does so by combining the Statistical Forecasting System and the Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) system. This approach allows the India Meteorological Department (IMD) to provide more accurate predictions.
Enhanced Monsoon Prediction with MME (IMD’s )
Above all, IMD’s MME approach integrates global climate models (CGCMs) from leading climate research centers, including IMD’s Monsoon Mission Climate Forecasting System (MMCFS). Updated monthly, these models address growing demands from government authorities and users for detailed regional rainfall predictions to improve planning and preparedness. The continuous efforts of the India Meteorological Department (IMD) have greatly enhanced the accuracy of their forecasts.
Improved Forecast Accuracy
IMD introduced the Statistical Ensemble Forecasting System (SEFS) in 2007 and the MME approach in 2021, significantly enhancing monsoon forecasts provided by the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
- Absolute forecast error for all-India seasonal rainfall dropped by 21% (2007-2024) compared to 1989-2006.
- Forecast error in Indian summer monsoon rainfall improved from 5.97% (2005-2014) to 5.01% (2015-2024).
- Correlation coefficients between actual and forecast rainfall increased from 0.37 (2005-2014) to 0.61 (2015-2024).
- IMD accurately predicted below-normal rainfall in 2014-2015 & 2023 and above-normal rainfall in 2024, highlighting continuous improvements in monsoon forecasting.
National Monsoon Mission (NMM) & Advanced Prediction Models
The Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) launched NMM to develop high-resolution dynamical models for seasonal, extended-range, and short-range monsoon forecasts. Markedly, this initiative has enhanced forecasting accuracy and helped identify active/break spells of the monsoon. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) plays a crucial role in implementing these advanced models.
Mission Mausam: Transforming Weather & Climate Science
Launched in September 2024, Mission Mausam aims to revolutionize India’s climate research and enhance resilience against extreme weather and climate change. IMD integrates Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) to refine weather predictions further, contributing to the success of the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
Research & Continuous Model Improvement
A Research Advisory Committee (RAC), comprising experts from IITM, NCMRWF, INCOIS, ISRO, and academia, oversees monsoon model reviews and improvements. The committee meets annually to refine forecasting techniques based on the latest advancements, in collaboration with the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
Reference
Parliament Question: Monsoon Prediction
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