Although we have surpassed the threshold for one year thus far, humanity is approaching the end of what many considered a ‘safe zone’ as climate change intensifies.
People in New Delhi, India, wait in line for water in June 2024 during a heat wave.Credit: Raj K Raj/Hindustan Times via Getty
In 2024, Earth’s average temperature officially surpassed 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels for the first time. The climate scientists made this announcement. It indicates a temporary breach of the threshold governments set to prevent severe global warming impacts. Though it’s a single metric for one year, it serves as a stark warning that the world is moving faster into hazardous territory than previously expected.
“This is both a physical reality and a symbolic shock. We’re nearing the end of what was considered a safe zone for humanity.”
–Gail Whiteman, a social scientist specializing in climate risks at the University of Exeter, UK
Earth shattered heat records in 2023 and 2024: Is global warming speeding up?
Various international organizations that independently monitor global temperatures confirmed the news. Despite slightly different figures, their consensus shows that last year, Earth’s temperature reached an average of 1.55 °C above the 1850–1900 levels. Markedly, this was a period before significant human-generated greenhouse gas emissions. The 2024 temperature also marks a noticeable increase from 2023, when heat records were set. Researchers are examining whether this two-year temperature rise is an anomaly or a sign of accelerating climate change.
Nearly 200 nations committed to the 2015 Paris Agreement to cap global warming at 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. However, carbon emissions from fossil fuels have continued to grow. All in all, they reached a record high last year despite advances in clean energy like wind and solar power.
“Single years exceeding the 1.5-degree threshold don’t make the long-term goal unattainable,” stated UN Secretary-General António Guterres. “It means we must intensify efforts to meet targets. Leaders must act now.”
Hot air
Scientists often use a ten-year average to eliminate normal climate fluctuations from temperature data. This approach helps them focus on Earth’s long-term temperature trend, refine models, and enhance future projections. By utilizing this method, researchers estimate that global temperatures have increased to 1.3 °C above pre-industrial levels, suggesting it may take several more years before consistently surpassing 1.5 °C. This additional time is crucial.
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